Climate change is having real impacts on the Texas grid. With Texas’ grid operator ERCOT recently declaring an emergency because of record-setting electricity demands, there is considerable pressure for the state to make changes.
With global energy needs projected to rise by 25%-58%, Nature states that even just moderate increases in global temperature will only drive the constant use of air conditioners and energy. According to the same study by Nature, Commercial electricity accounts for 80% of the global total climate-driven energy demand increase.
These summers will continue to look like the norm, the Texas grid will be overused, and consequently, reserve margins will stay dangerously low if climate change continues at its current rate.
Can the Texas Grid Handle the Current Population Growth of Texas?
According to the Texas Demographic Center, the total population in Texas will be closer to 50 million than its current 29 million. The question to ask then is this: will enough of the pressure be alleviated for the Texas grid through power plants and sustainable energy?
The Department of Energy put out a report in 2015 that details all of the complexities of tackling climate change. To offer solutions, and to further prevent the grid from failing due to high temperatures and increased demand, the DOE demands for more resilient grids.
This means that builders embrace smart technology, the government starts more projects to prevent hurricane damage, and more wholesale electricity is utilized from moderate weather states during peak summer months.
Will Blackouts Become the Norm?
Actually though, blackouts are pretty normal. According to Climate Central, “147 million customers lost power, for at least an hour and often far longer, from weather-related outages since 2003, an average of 15 million customers affected each year.” And so far, there has been a ten-fold increase in blackouts between the years 2003 to 2014.
Regarding the Texas grid, this might be alarming. ERCOT’s 2019 planning report forecasts the next 15 years without adjusting for climate change-induced increases in temperatures all that much. This data could be misleading and could mean that the reserve margin is too low to keep up with electricity demand.
But all of this is speculation at this point. Texas has been making huge strides in sustainable energy. And by 2050, once the population has increased drastically and the temperatures have risen to their projected amount, the country will most likely enough sustainable pieces in motion.