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What to Expect From Wholesale Electricity Rates in 2020 and Beyond 

Using data from 2018 on the wholesale electricity market, we can view the somewhat consistent pricing of wholesale electricity from the ERCOT North hub – from the months of January to June. Yet this consistency is just a lesson in perceived stability, as wholesale electricity, after all,  is rife with volatility. 

Wholesale prices this year alone were a wild ride as graphs spiked and danced to reflect the surging prices of extreme heat. But that’s just the nature of the market; as all commodities go, things fluctuate and you can only ride out the waves until a baseline homeostasis replaces the chaos.

Given that we accept this volatility, what if even more erratic behavior is in the books for wholesale electricity in the near future? 

Let’s explore that question in a little more detail

More Volatility on the Horizon?

 

Let’s pursue an answer to the following question: if wholesale electricity prices fluctuate in tandem with renewable sources like wind and solar, will an increased reliance on renewables simply necessitate a more volatile market?

There has always been a reliability problem for renewables in the sense that wind can stall for days on end, leading to an electricity demand that outweighs electricity generation. 

But when the wind is really rolling, this often means negative wholesale electricity prices. These wholesale prices don’t necessarily mean cheaper retail electricity for consumers, but only those who are trading on the wholesale power market and who can utilize the cheap electricity. Often though, negative wholesale electricity prices simply mean a surplus of electricity generation + a decreased demand, meaning that many companies pay factories to take excess energy off their hands. After all, it’s often cheaper to burn up excess energy than power down an entire factory. 

With this being said though, if renewables continue to grow, and we get closer and closer to an all-renewable grid, will this reliance on wind and solar simply mean more violent fluctuations of negative or exorbitant prices? Unless battery storage continues its positive trajectory, it just may.

Google (And Company) Will Hold a Huge Share of Electricity

According to Green Tech Media, Google has laid claim to even more renewable energy investments, meaning that they will hold the power to sway wholesale markets in the future. And tech giants continue a similar trajectory and push for renewables, the markets might rise and fall in conjunction even more with more green-minded stakeholders. 

But alas, Google isn’t only looking to decarbonize the grid but also to up the ante on energy storage technology, meaning that when the wind blows strongest, and the sun shines its brightest, there will be plenty of energy for the cloudy, windless days.